STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: ALABAMA SENATORIAL ELECTION

Today, January 3, 2018, newly elected United States Senator, Doug Jones is scheduled to be confirmed into the United States Senate. You will recall that Doug Jones, a Democrat beat Roy Moore, a Republican, in the December 12, 017, special Alabama senatorial election, held to replace the senate seat vacated by Jeff Sessions after Sessions was chosen and confirmed as United States Attorney General. This was the first time in twenty-five years that the people of Alabama had elected a Democrat to represent them in the United States Senate.

All eyes throughout the United States were on the special Alabama senatorial election. The Republican majority was a slim one, 52 – 48. Plus, this majority contained four RINOs, who could not be counted on to vote on republican sponsored legislation. These four RINOs include John McCain, Susan Collins, Jeff Flake, and Bob Corker. It was Senator McCain’s last-minute vote no that doomed the repeal/replace of Obamacare. Should Alabama elect a Democrat in the Alabama senatorial election, the Republican majority in the Senate would be cut in half.

Though the primaries and run-off, top candidates included current appointed Senator Luther Strange, Representative Mo Brooks, and former Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice, Roy Moore, with Judge Moore coming out on top. Thus, the general election would be between Judge Moore and Democrat nominee Doug Jones.

While he claims to be a conservative with Alabama values, Jones is anything but. His stands on the issues are parallel with the stands of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. While Roy Moore can be described as eccentric when it comes to his Christian faith and his politics, and many Republicans don’t care for him and his attention-getting ways, Judge Moore was sure to be elected in the special Alabama senatorial election with no difficulty. Needless to say, most every Democrat hated Judge Moore. I even had a friend who would shake with hatred at the mention of his name.

Just like clockwork, on November 9, the Washington Post ran a story where a woman claimed that Judge Moore initiated a sexual encounter with her when she was fourteen years old and he was thirty-two. Subsequently other women came forward with stories depicting improper sexual advances made by Judge Moore against them. The nature of Judge Moore’s alleged actions ranged from simply asking several teenage girls out on dates when he was in his thirties to the woman who claimed that she was forced to inappropriately touch Judge Moore and he inappropriately touched her when she was fourteen. While Moore denied these accusations, he was unable to prove them false. Even though there were questions as to whether or not these women were telling the truth, with one woman actually admitted she was paid to lie, questions were put in the mind of many Alabama voters. Thus, many Republican votes that, under normal circumstances, could be taken for granted, weren’t there for the December 12 special Alabama senatorial election.

Judge Roy Moore lost the election by a mere 22,000 votes. Many otherwise Republican voters cast their votes for Doug Jones, probably ignorant of his stands on the issues, didn’t bother to vote, or wrote in a different candidate. In fact, the number of write-in votes, was just about equal to the vote differential.

When the allegations against Roy Moore surfaced, Democrats began salivating, and worked to get out the vote for Doug Jones.

With a state that overwhelming voted for Donald Trump in November 2016, some found it hard to believe that Alabama could elect a Democrat to the United States Senate. As soon as the election results were in, the Democrats cranked up their spin/lie machine declaring that the election was a referendum on President Donald Trump and the results proved that Donald Trump was losing what little popularity he had with the American electorate. The Democrats also claimed that Alabama, a once solid red state was now starting to turn blue. Of course, none of the above is true. In no way is Alabama turning blue nor is Alabama turning against President Donald Trump. Democrats lie, we all know that.

With such a slim vote differential, could there have been some fraud? I think that’s a given. Democrats in Alabama have been known to bus voters living in Democrat districts to the polls after giving them envelopes containing cash. Democrats claim there was no voter fraud in the special Alabama senatorial election. We all know, though, had Roy Moore won by 22,000 votes, the Democrats would have been screaming “voter fraud” to the tops of their lungs.

The analysis by top Alabama Republican officials indicated that many voters, especially women voters, in the upscale suburbs of Alabama’s larger metropolitan areas, either stayed at home, voted for Doug Jones, or wrote in someone. Thousands of women just couldn’t bring themselves to vote for accused Roy Moore, even though the accusations could not be proven.

After this turn of events and listening to the Democrat lies, I did an analysis of my own, looking at vote totals for the Senate election and vote totals for the 2016 presidential election.

Election Results by County

The counties who voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 include Bullock, Dallas, Greene, Hale, Jefferson, Lowndes, Macon, Marengo, Montgomery, Russell, Sumter, and Wilcox.

It is interesting to note that in Jefferson County, the most populous county in Alabama, the county of the city of Birmingham, and the county of the toney suburbs of Mountain Brook, Vestavia Hills, Hoover, and Homewood, 130, 614 votes were cast for Donald Trump in November 2016, while just 66,309 votes were cast for Roy Moore in the special Alabama senatorial election. That’s a difference of 64, 305. Many people who would have most likely voted for Roy Moore if there had been no allocations, failed to cast their votes for him.

Something else interesting about Jefferson County is the 149,522 votes cast for Doug Jones when 151,583 votes were cast for Hillary Clinton in Jefferson County. Remember, this was a special election, and in special elections, you can almost always see a decline in the number of voters participating. Sure, many of the votes in Jefferson County for Trump in 2016 were cast for Jones on 12/12/2017. But this just looks a little odd to me. Furthermore, the number of votes cast in the special Alabama senatorial election is 76% of the number of votes cast in the 2016 presidential election. With the exceptions of Marengo, Russell, and Sumter, the counties voting for Clinton in 2016 had percentages greater than 70 when comparing the number of votes cast in the senate election to the number of votes cast in the presidential election. For counties where Trump had the most votes in the presidential election, the percentages ranged from mid-fifties to mid-sixties.

Other counties which looked interesting include Baldwin County, home to the beautiful Alabama Gulf Coast beaches and many wealthy individuals. In Baldwin County, Clinton got 18,409 votes in 2016 while Jones got 22,131 votes in the Alabama senatorial election. In the county where I was born and raised, Cullman County, Jones got more votes in the senate election than Clinton did in the presidential election: 3730 to 4156. I don’t know if any Democrat has ever thought of Cullman County as ripe for voter fraud, but it is.

It’s also interesting to examine the two major college counties in the state, Tuscaloosa, home to the University of Alabama and Lee, home to Auburn University. Lee went for Trump in the presidential election, but most of the votes were cast for Jones in the senate election. Lee County is a traditional conservative stronghold with Auburn University being one of the most conservative major higher learning institutions in the United States. Trump received 34,321 votes while Moore received just 14, 017 votes. This seems “major strange” to me. While Clinton did receive more votes than Jones in the elections in Tuscaloosa county, 47, 701 cast votes for Clinton in the presidential while only 22,064 cast votes for Roy Moore.

Was the special Alabama senatorial election replete with fraud.? I don’t know. Was there some element of fraud in the election? I’d take that bet because there’s some degree of fraud in every election. When I suggested that there might be some fraud involved on a social media thread, I was quickly told that I didn’t know what I was talking about. There’s no fraud. Like I said above, if Judge Moore had won, this person would be alleging fraud until the cows come home.

While some of the numbers I’ve put together are indeed interesting, I believe that the state GOP party bosses were indeed correct. Women from many upscale suburbs in populous metropolitan areas either voted for Doug Jones, stated at home, or wrote someone’s name in. Furthermore, I’m going to go out on a “sexist” limb and say that many of these women have no clue when it comes to issues, and no clue about majorities in legislative bodies. They vote Republican because their husbands tell them to or they grew up in Republican families and always voted Republican.

I know that’s a bit harsh and I’ve already been told that’s sexist. But I consider my political acumen a 7.5 on a scale of 1 to 10. Most people out there wouldn’t even measure up to a five, even people who belong to political organizations. When voters, particularly women voters, heard about the accusations made against Roy Moore, they flatly refused to vote for him.

One thing is for sure, and many media outlets, including some conservative talking heads are getting it wrong. Alabama values haven’t changed. Alabama is not transitioning from a Republican state to a Democrat state, and the people of Alabama are not disillusioned with President Trump. The Alabama Senate seat went to a Democrat because the Republican candidate is alleged to have committed sexual improprieties on numerous occasions.

Doug Jones, who has claimed that he may vote with Republicans some of the time (I won’t believe it until I see it), will be up for re-election in 2020. I believe it’s safe to say that he won’t get re-elected.

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